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Unit 12Export ControlChapter 6: Summary and reflections on the future of export controls
All chapters
  1. 1. Introduction
  2. 2. Multilateral instruments and standards for arms export controls
  3. 3. Multilateral instruments and standards for dual-use export controls
  4. 4. The development of arms and dual-use export control instruments by and through the European Union
  5. 5. The national implementation of export controls
  6. 6. Summary and reflections on the future of export controls
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Chapter 6

Summary and reflections on the future of export controls

Summary

In this learning unit, we have explored why and how states have developed controls over the trade in both arms and dual-use items, and how these controls are implemented. Controls and prohibitions have been established for a range of reasons: to address national security and WMD proliferation-related concerns, but also to pursue humanitarian objectives. Importantly, the history of export controls has shown how their development was, in many cases, linked or in response to broader geopolitical developments (e.g. wars and their subsequent impact) and technological trends.

States and international and regional organisations have established multilateral instruments and standards to regulate the legal trade in arms and dual-use items and to achieve a greater level of coordination and harmonisation. In the area of arms export controls, in 2013, states adopted the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) to establish global, legally binding standards for the international trade in conventional arms in order to prevent their misuse and illicit transfers. In the area of dual-use export controls, the four multilateral export control regimes have proved instrumental in facilitating coordination on export controls among groups of supplier states. They carry out the important function of developing and updating control lists which are used by a much wider range of states beyond the regime members. United Nations Security Council Resolution 1540, adopted in 2004, has led to a significant increase in the development and strengthening of national export control systems in many countries across the world.

Over time, the EU and its member states decided to establish common standards and regulations for the trade in arms and dual-use items, leading to a more detailed set of agreed rules than in any other region. The three main instruments that are part of this framework are EU restrictive measures, the EU Common Position on Arms Exports and the EU Dual-Use Regulation.

Finally, zooming in on national export control systems, we also saw how states meet international and regional obligations and standards by implementing national laws, and how they enforce the relevant controls.

Looking ahead

The implementation and future development of export controls, as well as multilateral and international cooperation in this field, faces a series of challenges:

  • Gaps remain in the universalisation of export control standards globally. Not all states have adopted an effective system for arms and, in particular, dual-use transfer controls, and many remain outside some or all of the relevant multilateral frameworks. While there are various reasons for this, capacity-building and awareness-raising activities are one of the available tools that states and international organisations can use to promote adherence to and strengthening of the implementation of existing instruments and standards. The EU plays an important role in this regard, as it is an active and long-term provider of assistance in the field of arms and dual-use export controls to non-EU countries. In addition to bilateral contributions to the work of international or regional organisations, including non-governmental organisations, the EU maintains its own capacity-building programme, the EU Partner-to-Partner (P2P) Export Control Programme.
  • The speed with which technological developments are occurring in fields such as additive manufacturing, artificial intelligence or biotechnologies is creating new proliferation risks and challenges. To address this, states and multilateral instruments can, where relevant, add new items to the control lists, or adapt the regulations if needed. States are also making increasing use of catch-all controls to capture transfers of concern. At the same time, these changes are bringing new actors into the scope of export controls, which creates challenges for their implementation and enforcement. In this context, it is even more important to strengthen both outreach and due diligence, as developments in dual-use and military technologies – such as space launch vehicle technology or cyber-surveillance items – extend to new sectors and a growing number of private actors.
  • The challenges to multilateralism resulting from rising international tensions and the growing global strategic competition also affect instruments for arms and dual-use export controls. States are increasingly using export controls to pursue national economic and security objectives. This approach, which is not new and shares similarities with the development of COCOM during the Cold War, brings challenges for multilateral cooperation. Despite this, cooperation within multilateral forums is essential to better understand how controls are implemented at the national level and to strengthen cooperation where relevant. For example, the work being done within the multilateral export control regimes, including the regular exchanges on technical matters, are crucial to make sure that necessary updates to the control lists are made, and where relevant, additional policy tools, such as catch-all controls, are developed.1

Additional reading

Footnotes

  1. Brockmann, Kolja/Bromley, Mark/Héau, Laurianne. 202. „The Missile Technology Control Regime at a Crossroads: Adapting the Regime for Current and Future Challenges”. SIPRI: Stockholm ↩

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