Introduction to Emerging and Disruptive Technologies: Basic Concepts

The term ‘emerging disruptive technologies’ has gained some prominence in the military debate over the last couple of years. Generally speaking, emerging and disruptive technologies refer to new and innovative advancements with the potential to significantly impact their respective fields of application. Depending on who you ask, between six and fourteen technologies that are relevant from a military perspective are usually described as ‘emerging’. These technologies include, amongst others, uncrewed remotely piloted systems, robotics, hypersonics, autonomy, artificial intelligence, quantum computing and sensing, additive manufacturing (also known as 3D printing), nanotechnology and materials, different forms of what has been termed ‘human enhancement’, biotechnology, and the latest developments in space. Obviously not all technologies mentioned are at the same stage in their development and while some have already been fielded (e.g. hypersonics), others are very early in the research and development cycle (e.g. quantum computing).

However, not all technologies seen as being of potential military relevance in the future are also ‘disrupting’. The term ‘disruptive innovation’ was coined by the late economist Clayton Christensen in the 1990s to describe a new technology developed by a small actor, challenging the established big players by creating new markets and displacing old ones.¹ One example is solid state drives with fast flash memory, which have almost completely displaced the market for classic magnetic hard drives. SSDs are not only much more robust against physical influences, but can now also be manufactured at low cost.

Transferred to the international system, disruptive technologies do have the potential to completely overthrow the established power-based order, allowing smaller states to ‘leapfrog’ their stronger competitors.

Uncrewed remotely piloted systems, robotics and artificial intelligence (AI), which are enabling autonomy in weapons systems in more and more contexts, can be seen as disruptive developments in the military realm. Quantum computing is currently shaping up to be another example, with potentially wide-ranging implications for encryption methods and thus all kinds of secure and private digital communication.

What can be seen, however, is that while most emerging disruptive technologies do indeed have the potential to alter and reshape the battlefield of the future, it is very hard to apply traditional arms control concepts from the Cold War to these technologies. That said, so far no one has had the revolutionary idea of rethinking arms control for these technologies either.